As another year comes to a close we can’t help feeling some frustration that the economy just doesn’t seem to want to take off, both around the world and here in Mexico.  Between the Eurozone debt crisis and stubborn unemployment in the United States, among other topics, we’ve got plenty to keep us fretting for the foreseeable future.  But since the holidays are upon us and presumably it’s a time for good cheer, here are some of the talking points we’ll have in our pocket as we hit the punch bowl hard in the coming days:

GDP growth: Banco de México and Banamex are projecting final 2011 GDP growth in the range of 3.8%.  OK we’re not talking China numbers here but compared to 2009’s -6.1 we’ll take it.

Hot industries: While most sectors of the economy are merely shuffling along, certain industries are getting, or remaining, seriously hot.  The big star this past year was automotive manufacturing, which after suffering a rough patch during the recession has roared back, with production and exports well up over 2010 and a number of significant new investments announced.  Aerospace manufacturing also continued its unchecked expansion, with new international investments announced and exports projected to post double-digit growth for the year.  Outside of manufacturing, mining surged this year, led by demand for gold, silver, copper and industrial minerals, and is on track to exceed 2010’s record setting production value for the year.

Renewable energy: In the energy industry, 2011 saw continued high interest in renewables, with major new investments in a variety of alternative energy sources.  New wind power generation plans were announced not only in Oaxaca, site of the largest wind developments, but also in northern states such as Zacatecas and Baja California and far south eastern Quintana Roo.  Interest in solar electricity generation appeared to surge as well, with a range of projects announced for manufacturing sites, corporations, municipal lighting and rural electrification, among others.  The growth in demand for solar panels is helping drive expansion of domestic photovoltaic equipment manufacturing.

Agriculture: The agriculture and livestock sector faced a severe challenge this year with devastating drought conditions in various northern states.  A bright spot, nonetheless, is the growing diversification of exports such as meat.  Mexican beef has found a new market in Russia, to which exports of frozen beef surged this year, and exports of pork to China and Japan are expected to rise in 2012 following recent regulatory moves.  Chinese authorities have certified a number of Mexican pork packing plants to export to the Asian giant in 2012, while Japan recently agreed to increase quotas for imported Mexican pork, as well as beef and chicken, beginning next year.

Read about our participation in the Mexico Today program here.

Down with the Gang of Four?

Amidst the wailing, gnashing of teeth, rending of garments and general raging rumpus that gushed forth in the wake of the liquidation of Luz y Fuerza del Centro (LyFC) last week, one interesting detail escaped us, until now: a rather modest paid advertisement in Reforma taken out by the Mexican Wind Energy Association (AMDEE).  The ad states simply, “Muchas Felicidades Señor Presidente.”  Now, unless President Calderón and his wife were celebrating their anniversary last week, we presume the congratulations refer to the dissolution of the electric company.  Seems straightforward enough, but the more we think about it, the little ad reads like a Mao-era Chinese wall poster.  The congratulations without any mention of the topic (birthday? Tae Kwon Do medal?) is uncharacteristically coy for this form of communication, even though the message is presumably implicit under the circumstances.  Mexico’s major wind farms, located far from the capital, certainly don’t compete with LyFC in power generation, and LyFC bought most of its power from the CFE anyway.  If the ad appeared only in Reforma (we don’t know if it appeared elsewhere), was it intended as an intimation of fellow-travelership aimed at the paper’s pro-business, pro-private sector readership?  But word, of course, gets around in this talky town.  If the ad appeared in the Pravda-like La Jornada, it would be perceived as a deliberate poke in the eye by that paper’s readership.  One would think the AMDEE would take pains to keep its image associated with more progre-friendly concepts such as “green,” “eco,” “carbon-neutral,” and whatnot, so why stick their necks out when danders are up?  We found no mention of the LyFC topic on the organization’s web site.  Considering that AMDEE’s membership includes numerous multi-national energy companies, we can only surmise that the cryptic ad is a winking affirmation of AMDEE members’ support for eventual privatization and opening up of Mexico’s energy sector in general.  But then again, to borrow a phrase from Ed Grimley, it’s difficult to say.