Some developments meriting commentary took place last week in the preliminary campaigns for next year’s Mexican presidential election.  We laid out the general pre-candidacy landscape in this post, for anyone joining us mid-program.

First in the PAN: Since we last wrote on this topic two weeks ago, Josefina Vázquez Mota’s stock has clearly risen.  President Felipe Calderón spoke favorably of his former Education Secretary at an event following the official launch of her campaign for the nomination, prompting speculation that he was not averse to an eventual Vázquez Mota candidacy.  This was considered to be a signal of some significance, as Calderón’s personal preferred candidate is believed to be Ernesto Cordero.  For his part, Cordero wasted no time in grabbing back the spotlight by resigning as Finance Secretary on September 9 in order to formally launch his own drive for the PAN nomination.  The top three contenders Vázquez Mota, Cordero and Senator Santiago Creel have stepped up their campaigns in recent days and were further solidified as the front runners when Education Secretary Alonso Lujambio dropped out of the race on August 29.  While Jalisco Governor Emilio González Márquez is still talking up his campaign, the rumor mill has him tabbed as the next casualty, possibly following the Panamerican Games to be held in Guadalajara October 14 – 30 [UPDATE: González Márquez officially dropped out of the race on September 22].  The coming weeks should be interesting for PAN-watchers, as the top three pre-candidates make moves to try to build buzz and momentum. [Permalink inexplicably out of order, please go here for the rest of this post]

The PRD has been something like a spooky haunted mansion the past couple weeks – the unexpected noises coming out of it have us jumping for the chandelier.  Things got entertaining when Mexico City Social Development Secretary Martí Batres sonorously criticized his boss, Mayor Marcelo Ebrard, for attending President Felipe Calderón’s annual address.  Batres maintains that Calderón stole the 2006 election from Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and as such is an “illegitimate” president.  Ebrard, enmeshed in a fierce battle with López Obrador for the PRD nomination, seized the opportunity to sack his irksome subordinate for questioning his authority to lead.  Unburdening himself of Batres was a strategic move for Ebrard, as the city’s Social Development Department oversees social programs and resources key to shoring up popular support for the party in power.  With the party and its allies split between AMLO and Ebrard for the nomination, leaving Social Development in the hands of staunch AMLO supporter Batres simply wouldn’t do.  But here’s the spooky part: AMLO himself, instead of leaping on the opportunity to rail against Ebrard as authoritarian and intolerant (as his supporters hastened to do), placidly declared that the Mayor was free to make administrative adjustments to his team as he deemed convenient.  This uncharacteristic indifference sent chills up our spine.  When López Obrador, who sees conspiracies fill the air like so many falling snowflakes, waxes harmonious when his rival sacks one of his closest allies, something fishy is cooking behind the scenes.  We’re still not sure what is happening back there, but cards will have to be played soon as the PRD has ostensibly agreed to conduct polls in October to gauge which of its two aspiring candidates has greater public support. [UPDATE: The polls are now being pushed back to November or later; formal dates have not been set]

For its part, the PRI announced it will define its presidential candidate on February 5, 2012.  The news was largely met with yawns as Enrique Peña Nieto continues on track for the nomination with no substantive rivals in sight.

Read about our participation in the Mexico Today program here.

With less than a year remaining before Mexico’s next presidential election, to be held July 1, 2012, not much is settled other than the front-runnership of the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto.  But the political parties have not yet launched their official campaigns, and there is still plenty of time for the landscape to shift.  So from this vantage point, here is our view of the lay of the land.

The six year administration of President Felipe Calderón of the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) has been one of the toughest in recent times for Mexico, beginning with a highly disputed election and beset by severe recession, the swine flu crisis, drought, flooding and a drastic increase in violence from warring drug traffickers.  With this backdrop, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), still stewing over loss of the presidency to the PAN in 2000 following 70+ years of uninterrupted rule, appears to view its return to power next year as a foregone conclusion.  The PRI has not yet formally selected its candidate, but Mr. Peña Nieto, currently Governor of the State of Mexico, is widely expected to be chosen. The only other visible candidate, playing Washington Generals to Peña Nieto’s Harlem Globetrotters, is Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones, who trails by a lengthy margin in early polling.  Peña Nieto is no maverick, but rather represents the customs and methods of the old PRI, and in fact he is related to various high profile PRI figures from the past.  In place of a clear public policy platform, Mr. Peña Nieto has a much more formidable and possibly invincible ally: The slobbering support of the country’s largest television network, Televisa.

While much of the media may be handing over the keys to the PRI already, the other two leading political parties are proceeding full bore in preparation for their respective campaigns.  Even as the PAN reels from the collective black eye it has received over the past five years, an abundance of candidates clambers to obtain the party’s candidacy.   First in line is Senator Santiago Creel, whose smug confidence was unexpectedly dashed to atoms by dark horse Felipe Calderón late in the race last time around.  President Calderón’s own apparent choice is Finance Secretary Ernesto Cordero, with Federal Deputy Josefina Vázquez Mota and potty-mouthed, rosary-brandishing Jalisco State Governor Emilio González Márquez also loudly campaigning for selection.    Dozens more aspirants are lined up behind the top five pre-candidates, but the outlook is bleak for the PAN.  While Creel, González Márquez and Vázquez Mota can each lay claim to a certain degree of personal charisma, it is difficult to imagine any of the three winning it all under current circumstances.  Creel’s aristocratic appearance and demeanor fail to connect with the hoi polloi; the appeal of González Márquez’ smirking swagger and promotion of the Catholic church is not broad based; and Vázquez Mota is fighting an uphill battle against the highly conservative PAN hierarchy.  Ultimately, Vázquez Mota’s condition as “something completely different” may well be the PAN’s best bet, but it’s still unlikely to put her over the top in the national race and may not even be enough to win the party’s nomination.

If the PAN is paddling upstream, the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) is snagged on a rock underneath the falls.  With two clear candidates vying to become the candidate of an alliance of left-wing currents and minor parties spearheaded by the PRD, the party is struggling to keep from splitting into smoldering shards and total collapse.  The two pre-candidates are former Tabasco State gubernatorial candidate and Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (commonly referred to as AMLO) and current Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard.  López Obrador approximately tied Felipe Calderón in the last presidential election and proceeded to fight the decision for months after Calderón was declared the victor by a PAN-dominated electoral tribunal.  Ebrard, ever the wily crocodile, has long professed support for AMLO’s cause, all the while working feverishly behind the scenes to shore up his own support base within the party in detriment to his former mentor.  Internally, the PRD is severely split between two principal currents, one of which supports AMLO for the candidacy while the other supports Ebrard.  The party is further riven amongst numerous sub-factions weaving in the venomous political waters like so many ribbons of ideological seaweed.   Adding to the chorus of oaths are two small independent parties, the Partido del Trabajo (PT) and the Partido Movimiento Ciudadano (PMC, formerly Convergencia), who provide their support, such as it is, unconditionally for AMLO.

While both AMLO and Ebrard have labored to create a perception that they will each accept the results of a mutually agreed candidate selection mechanism, neither looks likely to turn his support over to the other for an ultimately unified candidacy of the left.  This past weekend’s PRD party congress appears to have agreed in principle to determine the candidate through a series of polls of public opinion in general, rather than consulting only party members.  This mechanism was promoted by Ebrard and its adoption appears on the surface to be a tactical victory by the capital’s mayor over his rival.  If AMLO somehow comes out ahead in the polls, however, Ebrard would theoretically be obliged to eat his hat.  In reality, of course, the chivalrous agreement to respect the poll results could easily go up in smoke once the results are announced in October.

One final note: the topic of whether or not to enter into electoral alliances with other parties (usually referring to the rightist PAN) for state level elections earlier this year has been highly divisive within the PRD.  Ebrard generally has supported the strategy, while López Obrador and his followers are staunchly against.  The possibility that Ebrard becomes the PRD’s presidential candidate has raised speculation that he might seek an unprecedented PRD-PAN alliance in a massive push to prevent the PRI from returning to power.  While such an exceedingly-strange-bedfellows alliance would make for delicious political entertainment, the stumbling blocks appear to be insurmountable in reality.  For our part, may truth turn out to be stranger than fiction.

NOTE: There is an update to this post here.

To find out about our participation in the Mexico Today program, go here.

On Sunday, July 4, Mexicans went to the polls to vote in gubernatorial elections in 12 states, as well as numerous mayoral and state legislature elections.  Today, headlines are dominated by analysis of gains for the PRI and multiple cases of electoral manipulation.   Hallelujah!

In the not-too-distant past, such an outcome on election day would primarily be cause for anger, frustration and concern.  But, as a great thinker once said, that was then and this is now.  Realistically speaking, many of us feared the elections would be the target of attacks by the drug cartels, particularly in the wake of last week’s murder of the front-running candidate for governor in the border state of Tamaulipas.  But when we crawled out of our hiding places this morning, we were greeted mostly with tales of corruption and gangstery old-school politics.  Just like the bad old days, which are actually starting to look kind of good by comparison.

The strong showing by the PRI is seen in some quarters as an ominous foreshadowing of return to the single-party domination and strong-arm tactics of yesteryear.  Certainly the reports of extreme electoral monkey business in Hidalgo and Veracruz suggest the PRI hasn’t forgotton how to throw a good old fashioned Mexican election.  Initial returns, however, indicate that the PRI actually lost the governorships of the states of Oaxaca, Puebla and Sinaloa, which are known for many nice things but seriously people pristine electoral democracy is not one of them.  Perhaps most promising, voter turnout in a good number of states was over 50%, according to published figures.  Even turnout in Tamaulipas approached 40%, which isn’t bad considering we’re on the verge of changing the state motto to “Hail of gunfire.”  So in light of widespread concerns about catching the “bullet flu” at the polls yesterday, on balance Mexicans should be commended for exercising their political rights.  Hopefully, the incoming governors, mayors and state legislators will show a similar commitment to democracy.  Hopefully.