Put me in coach

In the run-up to this weekend’s G20 meeting in Huntsville, Ontario, much ink has been spilled regarding the value of the Chinese currency.  Economists, pundits and observers of all stripes have taken positions on various sides regarding the question of how much and how fast the yuan (or Renminbi, if you prefer) needs to appreciate against other major currencies.  And, of course, how willing Chinese authorities are to allow this to happen.

Hypothetical scenarios projected in some circles of a rapid appreciation of 40% have China’s export competitors salivating.  Basic trade theory holds that by hiking the value of the yuan, Chinese exports become more expensive, making competing products made in countries such as Mexico that much more cost competitive.  Gaining ground of this type is seen as critical in the hotly disputed U.S. market for goods such as appliances and electronics.  Trade data for 2009 suggests that Mexico is already gaining some overall market share from China in the United States, and we have touched on the relative cost competitiveness between Mexico and China in this space before.

Mexican observers were quick to imagine their Christmas stockings filling up with export gains as the international media flooded with projections of a dearer yuan.  A recent report in Reforma cited an academic pundit in ticking off the potential benefits to Mexico: Increased exports to the United States, a rise in world oil prices, and even a possible bump in Chinese tourism to Mexico.  Much like Mexico’s hopes of defeating Argentina in the upcoming World Cup knockout match, however, a lot of unlikely things would really have to go right for this to work out.  The yuan itself, when ostensibly released from its dollar-pegged bondage by Chinese banking authorities last week, mostly behaved like a squirrel in the middle of the road: it moved hesitantly back and forth with no clear direction as the traffic of the G20 summit loomed.

Early feedback from G20 countries on China’s claims of a free-floating yuan reflects a good measure of skepticism about the true intentions of the Asian giant with regard to their currency.  As always, only time will tell what the outcome will be.  But if there is any significant appreciation of the yuan at all over the next year, it will be more than welcome in Mexico.  As would a dignified showing against Argentina, even if our fantasies of a stunning victory, or a 40% increase in manufacturing exports, go unfulfilled in the end.

Read the fine print

Here’s one that, we confess, took us by surprise: in a recent study of tax attractiveness for business, when the final numbers were in, Mexico came in at a whopping…wait a moment…(removes glasses, rubs eyes, puts glasses back on)…number one??!!

Well, we are beaming, we must say.  It’s not that we feel Mexico is not tax competitive – it’s just that, well, we’re still a little grumpy after filing our own Mexican corporate and personal taxes earlier this year.  But in KPMG’s Competitive Alternatives 2010 Special Report: Focus on Tax, Mexico is ranked number one, with the lowest Total Tax Index (TTI) based on a study of 95 cities in 10 countries.   The three major tax components under analysis in the report are corporate income tax, other corporate taxes, and statutory labor costs.  Tax systems vary widely from country to country, of course, and the overall tax burden on businesses can vary significantly by industry within a country.  Any attempt to boil down the corporate tax environment to a single index score will be complex, and KPMG addresses the challenges to such an undertaking in detail in their report.  Nonetheless, at least in this document, we are number one, and we must say we are well chuffed.  Now, if we can only keep the momentum going into the World Cup…

For a look at KPMG’s full report, go here.