As another year comes to a close we can’t help feeling some frustration that the economy just doesn’t seem to want to take off, both around the world and here in Mexico. Between the Eurozone debt crisis and stubborn unemployment in the United States, among other topics, we’ve got plenty to keep us fretting for the foreseeable future. But since the holidays are upon us and presumably it’s a time for good cheer, here are some of the talking points we’ll have in our pocket as we hit the punch bowl hard in the coming days:
GDP growth: Banco de México and Banamex are projecting final 2011 GDP growth in the range of 3.8%. OK we’re not talking China numbers here but compared to 2009’s -6.1 we’ll take it.
Hot industries: While most sectors of the economy are merely shuffling along, certain industries are getting, or remaining, seriously hot. The big star this past year was automotive manufacturing, which after suffering a rough patch during the recession has roared back, with production and exports well up over 2010 and a number of significant new investments announced. Aerospace manufacturing also continued its unchecked expansion, with new international investments announced and exports projected to post double-digit growth for the year. Outside of manufacturing, mining surged this year, led by demand for gold, silver, copper and industrial minerals, and is on track to exceed 2010’s record setting production value for the year. Read the rest of this entry »
Media are reporting today that the United States and Mexico have signed an agreement to lift a ban on Mexican trucks crossing the border into the United States to complete freight deliveries, a topic about which we have wailed and rent garments 
Good news for business travel to Mexico: As of May 16, Mexico began issuing and accepting ATA Carnets for the temporary importation of merchandise. For those not familiar with the system, an ATA Carnet works like a passport for merchandise that is not intended to be sold or otherwise left in a country to which a business person travels. This is particularly advantageous for goods such as product samples, trade show equipment, promotional materials and other professional equipment. By obtaining an ATA Carnet prior to business travel, qualifying goods may be taken to any participating country for up to one year, free of duties and other taxes, as long as the goods are not sold in the country and depart in the same condition in which they entered. With Mexico on board, 71 countries now participate in the ATA Carnet network. For those of us involved in U.S.-Mexico and Europe-Mexico trade, the new development means a significant reduction in documentation and cost for business travel to Mexico with equipment and samples.
As the U.S. economy doggedly continues to send mixed signals, events in the Middle East have the world biting its fingernails and Mexico’s internal problems capture headlines, the Mexican economy inexplicably appears to be doing better than it should. While weak points are numerous, positive signs still accrue: Official unemployment was set at 4.6% in March, the lowest level since December 2008. First quarter results brought indications of a revival of the domestic market, as heavy truck sales jumped 43% over 1Q10, auto sales rose 12% for the same period, and retail sales edged up over 1Q10 as well. The peso continued to pummel the dollar, with gains of 6.8% so far this year, but despite this exports have been strong. Exports of electric and electronic goods were up 16% through the first two months of the year over the same period in 2010, and interestingly, exports of pork to Japan are running 30% ahead of last year despite – or because of? – the earthquake and tsunami catastrophe. The IMF provided a rare moment of satisfaction for Mexican authorities this month by upgrading its GDP projection for the country to 4.6% for the current year – just slightly above the projection for Brazil, the heralded BRIC economy and Mexico’s archrival in Latin America. These details, of course, don’t by themselves add up to a shining panorama of unbridled optimism. But considering the unprecedented levels of violence brought on by the drug wars, you’d kinda think things would be going worse than they are economically. Let’s see what we’re saying about this topic a few months from now.