As Mexico’s year-long presidency of the 16th edition of the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP16) drew to a close, ProMéxico hosted the Green Solutions conference and exposition November 23 – 25, 2011 in Mexico City.   The event consisted principally of three days of panel discussions on public policy related to climate change, amidst an exposition area featuring innovative products and services aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and overall depletion the world’s natural resources.   The first edition of the Green Solutions conference took place during the COP16 international conference held in Cancun one year ago.

The conference provided an excellent opportunity for those involved or interested in climate change mitigation to exchange perspectives on the outlook for greenhouse gas reduction and learn about projects and initiatives taking place in various parts of the world.  With the COP17 conference kicking off in Durban, South Africa today, at the forefront of discussion is the question of what will happen once the Kyoto Protocol expires at the end of 2012.  The agreement currently establishes ostensibly binding greenhouse gas reduction targets for participating developed nations, and key signatories such as Japan, Russia and Canada are showing little enthusiasm for re-upping once the current period concludes.  

Green Solutions provided a welcome focus on the role of the private sector in the development and implementation of measures to mitigate climate change.  Important players such as Mexican multinational cement producer Cemex and Mexico’s state-run oil and gas monopoly Pemex participated in the forum, sharing their experiences in areas such as strategic environmental planning and carbon credit markets.  Individual panels took on the nuts and bolts of implementing environmental policies in industries such as automotive manufacturing and construction, and others walked participants through project finance and public-private partnerships.

A panel discussion on carbon markets called attention to the uncertain outlook for financing environmentally friendly development through emissions permits.  Between plummeting prices for carbon credits in Europe and concerns over the viability of the market for certificates should the Kyoto Protocol collapse in 2013, an existing source of project finance for Mexico may be at risk.  Mexico has the second largest number of development projects financed by carbon credits in Latin America, according to the Monterrey Technological Institute’s Global Sustainability Institute.  Nonetheless, at least one industry consultant speaking at the panel on carbon markets expressed optimism on the future of the mechanism based on current demand.

Read about our participation in the Mexico Today program here.

Some developments meriting commentary took place last week in the preliminary campaigns for next year’s Mexican presidential election.  We laid out the general pre-candidacy landscape in this post, for anyone joining us mid-program.

First in the PAN: Since we last wrote on this topic two weeks ago, Josefina Vázquez Mota’s stock has clearly risen.  President Felipe Calderón spoke favorably of his former Education Secretary at an event following the official launch of her campaign for the nomination, prompting speculation that he was not averse to an eventual Vázquez Mota candidacy.  This was considered to be a signal of some significance, as Calderón’s personal preferred candidate is believed to be Ernesto Cordero.  For his part, Cordero wasted no time in grabbing back the spotlight by resigning as Finance Secretary on September 9 in order to formally launch his own drive for the PAN nomination.  The top three contenders Vázquez Mota, Cordero and Senator Santiago Creel have stepped up their campaigns in recent days and were further solidified as the front runners when Education Secretary Alonso Lujambio dropped out of the race on August 29.  While Jalisco Governor Emilio González Márquez is still talking up his campaign, the rumor mill has him tabbed as the next casualty, possibly following the Panamerican Games to be held in Guadalajara October 14 – 30 [UPDATE: González Márquez officially dropped out of the race on September 22].  The coming weeks should be interesting for PAN-watchers, as the top three pre-candidates make moves to try to build buzz and momentum. [Permalink inexplicably out of order, please go here for the rest of this post]

The PRD has been something like a spooky haunted mansion the past couple weeks – the unexpected noises coming out of it have us jumping for the chandelier.  Things got entertaining when Mexico City Social Development Secretary Martí Batres sonorously criticized his boss, Mayor Marcelo Ebrard, for attending President Felipe Calderón’s annual address.  Batres maintains that Calderón stole the 2006 election from Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and as such is an “illegitimate” president.  Ebrard, enmeshed in a fierce battle with López Obrador for the PRD nomination, seized the opportunity to sack his irksome subordinate for questioning his authority to lead.  Unburdening himself of Batres was a strategic move for Ebrard, as the city’s Social Development Department oversees social programs and resources key to shoring up popular support for the party in power.  With the party and its allies split between AMLO and Ebrard for the nomination, leaving Social Development in the hands of staunch AMLO supporter Batres simply wouldn’t do.  But here’s the spooky part: AMLO himself, instead of leaping on the opportunity to rail against Ebrard as authoritarian and intolerant (as his supporters hastened to do), placidly declared that the Mayor was free to make administrative adjustments to his team as he deemed convenient.  This uncharacteristic indifference sent chills up our spine.  When López Obrador, who sees conspiracies fill the air like so many falling snowflakes, waxes harmonious when his rival sacks one of his closest allies, something fishy is cooking behind the scenes.  We’re still not sure what is happening back there, but cards will have to be played soon as the PRD has ostensibly agreed to conduct polls in October to gauge which of its two aspiring candidates has greater public support. [UPDATE: The polls are now being pushed back to November or later; formal dates have not been set]

For its part, the PRI announced it will define its presidential candidate on February 5, 2012.  The news was largely met with yawns as Enrique Peña Nieto continues on track for the nomination with no substantive rivals in sight.

Read about our participation in the Mexico Today program here.

With less than a year remaining before Mexico’s next presidential election, to be held July 1, 2012, not much is settled other than the front-runnership of the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto.  But the political parties have not yet launched their official campaigns, and there is still plenty of time for the landscape to shift.  So from this vantage point, here is our view of the lay of the land.

The six year administration of President Felipe Calderón of the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) has been one of the toughest in recent times for Mexico, beginning with a highly disputed election and beset by severe recession, the swine flu crisis, drought, flooding and a drastic increase in violence from warring drug traffickers.  With this backdrop, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), still stewing over loss of the presidency to the PAN in 2000 following 70+ years of uninterrupted rule, appears to view its return to power next year as a foregone conclusion.  The PRI has not yet formally selected its candidate, but Mr. Peña Nieto, currently Governor of the State of Mexico, is widely expected to be chosen. The only other visible candidate, playing Washington Generals to Peña Nieto’s Harlem Globetrotters, is Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones, who trails by a lengthy margin in early polling.  Peña Nieto is no maverick, but rather represents the customs and methods of the old PRI, and in fact he is related to various high profile PRI figures from the past.  In place of a clear public policy platform, Mr. Peña Nieto has a much more formidable and possibly invincible ally: The slobbering support of the country’s largest television network, Televisa.

While much of the media may be handing over the keys to the PRI already, the other two leading political parties are proceeding full bore in preparation for their respective campaigns.  Even as the PAN reels from the collective black eye it has received over the past five years, an abundance of candidates clambers to obtain the party’s candidacy.   First in line is Senator Santiago Creel, whose smug confidence was unexpectedly dashed to atoms by dark horse Felipe Calderón late in the race last time around.  President Calderón’s own apparent choice is Finance Secretary Ernesto Cordero, with Federal Deputy Josefina Vázquez Mota and potty-mouthed, rosary-brandishing Jalisco State Governor Emilio González Márquez also loudly campaigning for selection.    Dozens more aspirants are lined up behind the top five pre-candidates, but the outlook is bleak for the PAN.  While Creel, González Márquez and Vázquez Mota can each lay claim to a certain degree of personal charisma, it is difficult to imagine any of the three winning it all under current circumstances.  Creel’s aristocratic appearance and demeanor fail to connect with the hoi polloi; the appeal of González Márquez’ smirking swagger and promotion of the Catholic church is not broad based; and Vázquez Mota is fighting an uphill battle against the highly conservative PAN hierarchy.  Ultimately, Vázquez Mota’s condition as “something completely different” may well be the PAN’s best bet, but it’s still unlikely to put her over the top in the national race and may not even be enough to win the party’s nomination.

If the PAN is paddling upstream, the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) is snagged on a rock underneath the falls.  With two clear candidates vying to become the candidate of an alliance of left-wing currents and minor parties spearheaded by the PRD, the party is struggling to keep from splitting into smoldering shards and total collapse.  The two pre-candidates are former Tabasco State gubernatorial candidate and Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (commonly referred to as AMLO) and current Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard.  López Obrador approximately tied Felipe Calderón in the last presidential election and proceeded to fight the decision for months after Calderón was declared the victor by a PAN-dominated electoral tribunal.  Ebrard, ever the wily crocodile, has long professed support for AMLO’s cause, all the while working feverishly behind the scenes to shore up his own support base within the party in detriment to his former mentor.  Internally, the PRD is severely split between two principal currents, one of which supports AMLO for the candidacy while the other supports Ebrard.  The party is further riven amongst numerous sub-factions weaving in the venomous political waters like so many ribbons of ideological seaweed.   Adding to the chorus of oaths are two small independent parties, the Partido del Trabajo (PT) and the Partido Movimiento Ciudadano (PMC, formerly Convergencia), who provide their support, such as it is, unconditionally for AMLO.

While both AMLO and Ebrard have labored to create a perception that they will each accept the results of a mutually agreed candidate selection mechanism, neither looks likely to turn his support over to the other for an ultimately unified candidacy of the left.  This past weekend’s PRD party congress appears to have agreed in principle to determine the candidate through a series of polls of public opinion in general, rather than consulting only party members.  This mechanism was promoted by Ebrard and its adoption appears on the surface to be a tactical victory by the capital’s mayor over his rival.  If AMLO somehow comes out ahead in the polls, however, Ebrard would theoretically be obliged to eat his hat.  In reality, of course, the chivalrous agreement to respect the poll results could easily go up in smoke once the results are announced in October.

One final note: the topic of whether or not to enter into electoral alliances with other parties (usually referring to the rightist PAN) for state level elections earlier this year has been highly divisive within the PRD.  Ebrard generally has supported the strategy, while López Obrador and his followers are staunchly against.  The possibility that Ebrard becomes the PRD’s presidential candidate has raised speculation that he might seek an unprecedented PRD-PAN alliance in a massive push to prevent the PRI from returning to power.  While such an exceedingly-strange-bedfellows alliance would make for delicious political entertainment, the stumbling blocks appear to be insurmountable in reality.  For our part, may truth turn out to be stranger than fiction.

NOTE: There is an update to this post here.

To find out about our participation in the Mexico Today program, go here.

Workin' hard or hardly workin'?

We have long held that the calamitous state of public education in Mexico is perhaps the single greatest impediment to the country’s economic and social progress.  The corollary to this belief is that the national teachers’ union, the Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación, or SNTE, is the strongest obstacle to any genuine effort to improve education in Mexico.  Since its formation in 1949, the SNTE served the single-party system as a key cog in the PRI corporatist machine.  In the post-2000 multi-party era, the union has functioned as a power-broking lever in the service of its villainous, dictatorial leader, Elba Esther Gordillo.  Notoriously corrupt, the SNTE has systematically enriched its leaders while rewarding only fealty to the system among the rank and file.  Meanwhile, Mexico has steadily sunk in international assessments of basic education.

Earlier this month, a new teachers’ union independent of the SNTE was granted authorization by the federal government.  The new union, called the Sitem, was immediately denounced by the SNTE as a tool of anti-labor political groups seeking to undermine the legitimate aspirations of education workers.  Even the fiercely anti-Gordillo dissident current within the SNTE – the CNTE – decried the creation of the new union.  Somewhat ironically, however, the leftist political party PRD hailed the emergence of the Sitem.

For once, we couldn’t agree with the PRD more.  The SNTE not only has shown no interest in improving the quality of education in Mexico, it has fiercely fought to block efforts to reform and improve the system.  As non-specialists in the education sector, we know not what may be the true motivations of the new leaders of the Sitem.  The system perpetuated by the SNTE, however, is so vile and injurious to the nation that the introduction of an alternative union could hardly be worse.  May we not have to eat those words.

Mexico City's 'green' mayor

The pieces just continue to line up for Marcelo Ebrard.  Mexico City’s mayor this week was awarded the World Mayor Prize for 2010 by self-described urban affairs think tank The City Mayors Foundation.  According to the organization’s web site, the prize is intended to “honour those who have made long-lasting contributions to their communities and are committed to the well-being of cities nationally and internationally.”  The honor, which we suspect did not take Ebrard by surprise, comes directly on the heels of his hosting of the Local and Regional Leaders World Summit 2010 in Mexico City and participation in the 16th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP16) in Cancun.

This latest coup by Mr. Ebrard is yet another click in the ratcheting up of his long-running stealth campaign to run for president of Mexico in 2012, which we commented on in a recent post.  That same clicking sound may have been heard again recently with another political development: the selection of Senator Gustavo Madero as the new leader of the ruling National Action Party (PAN).  What could a dodgy internal election in the bible-thumpers’ party have to do with the aspirations of Mexico City’s gay-loving, tree-hugging leftist mayor?  The answer may be lurking between the lines of Senator Madero’s comments shortly after tying up his bid for PAN leadership.  Calling the currently favored PRI’s belief they will win back the presidency in 2012 a ‘wild fantasy’, Madero reiterated his support for anti-PRI electoral alliances with other parties – such as Mr. Ebrard’s  PRD.

With about 18 months to go before the election, there’s still ample time for various pre-candidates’ stars to rise and fall.  But right now the PAN has no visibly attractive candidate to speak of, and they’ll be coming off one of the most dreadful six-year periods in the country’s modern history.  If the election were held today, the running of any candidate other than Ebrard by a viciously divided PRD would be patently suicidal, particularly assuming Andrés Manuel López Obrador runs independently as a leftist coalition candidate.  Under this scenario, a hypothetical joint PAN-PRD ticket headed by Ebrard would provide the PAN with that rarest of birds, a seemingly responsible, business-friendly “leftist” candidate, while the PRD would presumably pick up the support of enough PAN voters to offset the loss of López Obrador’s diehard following.  Still, probably not enough to overtake the PRI and their nefarious tele-bot candidate, State of Mexico Governor Enrique Peña Nieto.

Ebrard, who rose to the capital’s mayoralty on the coattails of previous mayor López Obrador, heretofore has appeared to be discarding his former boss like a crusty snot rag.  But what if Ebrard, the ever canny and pragmatic crocodile, were to cut a back-room deal with the wacky tropical messiah by offering him (the horror, the horror) a key ministerial portfolio in exchange for López Obrador turning over his bloc of voters to the coalition?  It would have to be a pretty sweet deal for López Obrador to have anything to do with the PAN, but the ironclad principles of all parties involved have proved to be malleable when expediency has dictated in the past.

It’s a stretch, and the very idea of López Obrador ever holding any public office again in Mexico makes our blood run cold.  But if the PAN and PRD each field independent candidates and López Obrador runs on the PT-Convergencia ticket, they might as well just spend their campaign funds on hookers and blow now.  And Marcelo Ebrard isn’t one to let some silly quibble over party affiliations muck up what will likely be his only shot at the presidency.

Marcelo Ebrard

Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard must be feeling pretty large right now.  The Local and Regional Leaders World Summit 2010, which Ebrard hosted here in Mexico City, wrapped last week with a pact to reduce urban emissions signed by 138 mayors from around the world.  He may now rub his hands with glee for a few days before packing off to the 16th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP16), another international environmental summit to be held in Cancun, Mexico, beginning November 29.

Mr. Ebrard is gearing up for a run at the Mexican presidency in 2012, and his roles in these high profile international events fit perfectly into a subtle presidential campaign he has been implementing in careful steps for years now.  We are intrigued by what we consider to be a strategy most unusual in Mexican politics.  Traditionally (with the exception of Vicente Fox), obtaining the presidential nomination of one of the country’s three major political parties has required years of struggle within the party to obtain support of key leaders and block the aspirations of rivals.  Observed from the outside, this process has all the gravitas and dignity of monkeys hurling feces at one another in the zoo.  At this particular moment, the opprobrious clashes between factions within the PRD, Mr. Ebrard’s party, would make Machiavelli blush.  What makes Ebrard unusual is that, far from seeking out the headlines, he has carefully avoided visible involvement in the steady stream of flaps, frays and kerfuffles that make up political life at the local and national level.  As Mayor of Mexico City and a potential presidential candidate, he exerts considerable influence but behaves much like a crocodile, observing the mucky pond from hiding, his eyes just barely above the waterline, only to pounce at the precise moments necessary before submerging once again to observe from the weeds.  This game is particularly uncharacteristic of the PRD, whose modus operandi is practically based on the mounting of unseemly spectacles.  Ebrard rarely makes public pronouncements on internal party disputes or even participates in high profile party events.

Instead of bitch-slapping his rivals in the septic tank of local politics, Mr. Ebrard has focused on participating in international conferences abroad, talking up Mexico City’s ecological programs and making weighty observations on the future of urban development at events in Kyoto, New York, Bonn, Toronto and London, among many others.  These gatherings receive scant attention in the Mexican papers, but they have allowed Ebrard to build up bona fides abroad as a sober, policy-focused figure in contrast to the image of the Mexican politician more closely associated with characters such as Briagoberto Memelas and Juanón Teporochas.  In fact, Ebrard’s mayoralty has implemented a slew of progressive environmental programs in Mexico City, such as public bicycles and other bicycle-friendly policies, natural gas powered city buses, roof gardens, collection programs for spent batteries and cooking oil, a largely inoperable directive to reduce the use of plastic bags and, planned for 2011, the introduction of electric taxi cabs.

Considering the most pressing problems the country currently faces, such as the drug wars, the economy and the calamitous state of public education, programs to promote bicycle use may seem trivial by comparison.  And by spending so much time palling around with foreign eggheads, Ebrard runs the risk of appearing disinterested in larger domestic issues, or an odd bird at the very least.  But one might also argue that his favored policies have done no harm, which might not be said about the pursuits of many of the country’s other political leaders.  Whatever the perception, Mr. Ebrard will likely still have to dispose of his main rival for the candidacy of the political left, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to have even a remote chance of victory running solely on the PRD ticket.  López Obrador, the veritable Benny Hill of Mexican politics, appears likely to run regardless of whether he is conceded the PRD nomination.  Such a scenario could potentially raise the prospect of Ebrard running as the candidate of a PRD-PAN alliance, forged, no doubt, with the assistance of the devil at the crossroads.  This idea, which would serve certain momentary needs of both Ebrard and the PAN, is unquestionably wild-eyed and certainly would at the very least render López Obrador and his followers apoplectic.  For now, we’re filing it under “never say never,” and not counting Ebrard out of the race.  The guy’s a crocodile.

No can do

On August 18, 2010, the Mexican government published an updated list of U.S. products on which import duties will be applied, beginning August 19, 2010.  The duties were originally introduced in March 2009 in retaliation for the U.S. Congress’ termination of a pilot program allowing Mexican freight trucks to cross the border to complete deliveries in the United States.  Cross-border trucking, including the circulation of Mexican trucks in the United States, was intended to be implemented under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but is currently blocked by the United States.

The original list of 89 products affected by the Mexican duties has now been expanded to 99, by the addition of 26 items and removal of 16.  The current list includes key agricultural products in addition to processed foods, household goods and personal care items, among others.  Import duties under the scheme range from 5% to 25%.

Since the original retaliatory tariffs were implemented in 2009, the Obama administration has huffed and puffed unconvincingly about finding a solution to the trucking dispute.  As recently as last month, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood said that the administration was “closer than soon” (sic) to presenting a proposal to resolve the standoff.  So far nothing has been presented, as apparently the Teamsters union is unwilling to grant the President of the United States permission to comply with the negotiated terms of NAFTA.

We imagine the current situation delights Mexican President Felipe Calderón, as it gives him an opportunity to score points on two fronts at once.  On one hand, Mexico is taking advantage of a rare opportunity to use NAFTA to punish the United States, which customarily pulls Mexico around by the hair in trade disputes.  And at home, the new duties on pork and apples throw a bone to domestic producers of these products, who seem to spend far more time sobbing uncontrollably in the media over the influx of U.S. imports than they do producing pork and apples.

Our take: U.S. exporters are being held hostage by the Teamsters union.  Considering the Democrats’ fears of being flayed in the November Congressional elections, it appears highly unlikely that any action will be taken to resolve the issue in the foreseeable future.   Which is ironic, considering President Obama’s fervent entreaties to America to increase exports under his National Export Initiative.

Selected products on the current duty list include:

Source: Diario Oficial de la Federación, Secretaría de Gobernación

NOTE: Product descriptions, HTS numbers and duties are cited here unofficially for general reference only, please consult appropriate government documents for official information.

On Sunday, July 4, Mexicans went to the polls to vote in gubernatorial elections in 12 states, as well as numerous mayoral and state legislature elections.  Today, headlines are dominated by analysis of gains for the PRI and multiple cases of electoral manipulation.   Hallelujah!

In the not-too-distant past, such an outcome on election day would primarily be cause for anger, frustration and concern.  But, as a great thinker once said, that was then and this is now.  Realistically speaking, many of us feared the elections would be the target of attacks by the drug cartels, particularly in the wake of last week’s murder of the front-running candidate for governor in the border state of Tamaulipas.  But when we crawled out of our hiding places this morning, we were greeted mostly with tales of corruption and gangstery old-school politics.  Just like the bad old days, which are actually starting to look kind of good by comparison.

The strong showing by the PRI is seen in some quarters as an ominous foreshadowing of return to the single-party domination and strong-arm tactics of yesteryear.  Certainly the reports of extreme electoral monkey business in Hidalgo and Veracruz suggest the PRI hasn’t forgotton how to throw a good old fashioned Mexican election.  Initial returns, however, indicate that the PRI actually lost the governorships of the states of Oaxaca, Puebla and Sinaloa, which are known for many nice things but seriously people pristine electoral democracy is not one of them.  Perhaps most promising, voter turnout in a good number of states was over 50%, according to published figures.  Even turnout in Tamaulipas approached 40%, which isn’t bad considering we’re on the verge of changing the state motto to “Hail of gunfire.”  So in light of widespread concerns about catching the “bullet flu” at the polls yesterday, on balance Mexicans should be commended for exercising their political rights.  Hopefully, the incoming governors, mayors and state legislators will show a similar commitment to democracy.  Hopefully.

Be the first on your block

Mexico’s progress in making greater use of renewable energy sources has long been shackled by regulatory restrictions on independent energy generation by private enterprises and citizens.  This, of course, has much to do with the histrionics of political sectors that oppose energy reform for reasons wholly unrelated to energy, but that’s another topic.  It’s a fundamental problem of, as we say in Mexico, “ni picha, ni cacha, ni deja batear.”  The resources of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) are far too stretched to finance a wide range of innovative alternative generation projects, particularly at the micro level, but regulation has largely prevented anyone else from generating electricity, even for their own consumption.  Some furtive steps toward modernization of the regulatory framework fortunately have been taken in recent years.  One such step, introduced almost surreptitiously in 2007, was the Interconnection Contract for Small-Scale Solar Energy Sources, which permitted private generation of up to 10kw for residential use and 30kw for general low tension use.  Although the practical impact of this regulatory innovation was virtually nonexistent, it is significant nonetheless in that it represents Mexico’s first toe-dip in the waters of net metering for private electricity generation.  Now, however, the government has taken another important step forward toward clearing the way for wider use of net metering for private electricity generation.

The Official Gazette (Diario Oficial de la Federación) published on April 8 a new Interconnection Contract for Renewable Energy Sources following its submission by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE).  The new contract, which supplants the Interconnection Contract for Small-Scale Solar Energy Sources, represents two important advances: 1) it expands the parameters of allowable independent electricity generation by allowing residential users and small businesses to produce higher volumes of electricity than under the previous net-metering mechanism; and 2) it allows for net-metered independent generation using “renewable sources” of energy rather than limiting the scheme to small scale solar generation.  The new contract also details the methods and procedure for billing and crediting deficits or surpluses once consumption and generation are accounted for.

Expanding the permissible generation methods to include wind, hydro, tidal and other alternative energy sources removes an important constraint from non-governmental energy development.  The step also should help to raise awareness of opportunities for net metering and independent power generation in general in the country, which heretofore has been low, to say the least.   A high profile, friendly promotion campaign to spread awareness and demystify independent generation would be welcome, but we’re not asking for miracles.  For now, the efforts of environmental groups, specialized equipment dealers and early adopters will have to suffice.  But at least we’re moving forward.

For anyone interested in examining the new contract, the details are published here.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton travelled to Mexico on March 23 to lead a high-level security team in meetings with top Mexican officials to discuss the country’s war against the drug cartels.  The size and level of Clinton’s all-star team at the meetings, which included Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, is an indication of how much attention violence in Mexico is receiving in the Obama administration right now.  The March 14 shooting deaths of three people connected to the U.S. consulate in Ciudad Juárez certainly helped to raise the profile of the situation.

In Mexico, Secretary Clinton’s meeting with President Felipe Calderón and his security team was surely welcomed by some and decried by others.  Given the United States’ history of interventions in Mexico both military and political, many in Mexico discard out of hand any cooperation proposed by the neighbor to the north as a subterfuge to cover ill-defined but surely nefarious ulterior designs.  While this perception emerged for good reason, we feel that under the current circumstances, the question of intent is now academic.  While many political leaders in Mexico look for ways to spin the drug violence for partisan gain, the cartels continue to act with near impunity.  With executions and home invasions related to drug trafficking taking place in Atlanta, Phoenix and other U.S. cities, the cartels are now a domestic security threat in the United States, not just someone else’s problem in one of those other countries.

The U.S. government has spent the past thirty years throwing money at interdiction while voraciously navel-gazing in the face of unbridled domestic consumption of drugs such as cocaine, heroin and metamfetamine (and forgive us, but we will be an absolute monkey’s uncle if no member of Secretary Clinton’s high level security team, including Secretary Clinton herself, has never smoked a joint or huffed a rail at some point in their lives).  Remember “Just Say No”?  OK.  So really, far from obsessing about how to further abuse Mexico, we feel that the U.S. government has failed to give sufficient attention to Mexico in recent years, considering the substantial economic and social importance of Mexico to the United States.  Will the Obama administration’s sudden Cortéz-like discovery of Mexico be a case of too little, too late?  Perhaps, but in this case we feel that “better late than never” is more appropriate.  The long-entrenched susceptibility to corruption among Mexico’s law enforcement agencies, military and political class makes President Calderón’s domestic allies in the fight against drug trafficking undependable at best, and the results are splashed across the front pages every morning.  If it takes greater cooperation – or intervention, if you prefer – by the United States to help Mexico achieve rule of law, well, then unfortunately, we made our petate and now we’ll have to lie on it.